Bolton, a newcomer to politcs, saw a surge of unexpected strength since being elevated from bastard child to family heir. Decisive victories in Winterfell and the surrounding region helped clinched his victory, according to our analysis.
Nate Silver of the political statistics blog, 538, confirmed our analysis.
"Snow would have to clinch the support of 70 percent of the Houses of the North, simply to draw Bolton to a tie," Silver wrote. "Even at that point he'd have to maintain support going into battle at the Twins and then lead a long campaign in the south sustaining less than 32% causalities per battle. That doesn't seem remotely realistic at this time. This is a guy who could only get 62 bannerman from one of the most reliable Stark supporting houses in the North."
Some organizations have reacted to our annoucement with anger.
"I really think this is an effort at battle suppression," said Hyande Hittle, moderator of the Snow Bros Facebook page. "It's not over until it is over. What particularly bothers me is that they are only counting establishment Bannermen in the numbers, who pledged their faith months ago. They are not considering the wildlings and their complete support for Lord Commander Snow and Lady Stark."