bart_calendar (bart_calendar) wrote,

Trump Odds Post Palin

In general I think most people trying to pick elections are somewhat biased, but the people who set betting odds I suspect are less so, so the current Betfair analysis of what the Palin endorsement of trump means is interesting.

There is a fair amount of data in there, but the most crucial is that they were setting their odds thinking there was an 80 percent chance of Cruz winning Iowa.

Now with the Palin endorsement they put Cruz’s chances at 56 percent.

Market reaction was immediate, with Trump shortening from 2.88 to 2.56 for the Republican Nomination, equating to a 39% chance. More significantly, the opening Iowa Caucus now looks very different. Front-runner Ted Cruz was matched at 1.57 yesterday morning - now he’s around 1.80 or 56%. Less than a fortnight ago, Cruz was rated 80% likely to win at 1.25.

In what is seen as a two-horse race, Palin’s endorsement could be a gamechanger. She is adored among Iowa’s evangelical community, which looked set to support Cruz following a series of key local endorsements. A long-term ally of Palin, Cruz could do no more than take it on the chin.

That’s a pretty big change over a short period of time and some food for thought.
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