November 3rd, 2010

And So It Goes

So, we kept Reid and the Senate and the GOP gets the house.

This is going to be the same type of gift to Obama that the Contract For America midterm election was to Clinton.

The GOP has forgotten that it's easy for them to be popular:

1. After a huge terrorist attack when you have both branches of government and can get things done. (Even if they are crazy, shitty things.)

or

2. You don't have either branch of government so can simply blame everything on the other party.

Now, however, they've gotten themselves elected again and the voters will expect them to do shit.

But, it ain't going to happen. First off, a lot of the new House members are outsiders that the current House GOP leadership won't want to work with. Beyond that any bit of insane legislation the House comes up with still has to move through the Senate and avoid veto before it goes anywhere. So, you know, good luck with that.

Rand Paul is essentially a wasted seat in government because both parties will just ignore him and stick him with the most pointless subcommittees ever. He'll neither hurt the dems nor help the republicans.

As this plays out two things will happen:

1. The libertarian/Tea Party/other outsider republicans who won will get extremely frustrated. They are not life long politicians. They are in this for change and are sincere about it. When they get dismissed by members of their own party and have all of their legislation blocked they'll start thinking about starting their own party, which would then hand Obama reelection on a platter.

2. The independent voters who sent them to Congress will realize that voting weirdo candidates into office isn't effective. They will, depending on the personality of the individual, either go back to not voting at all or else join the people from #1 in forming a new third party. This is not a bad thing for Obama.

Meanwhile, the President is now set up in a win/win situation for 2012. If the economy gets better, as president he can claim all the credit. If it stays bad/gets worse he has a perfect foil in the GOP led congress.

In the meantime, of course, everything will be a mess because both houses of congress will fight each other - and probably shut down the government for a while. But, we've had that happen before and survived.

As to whether the economy gets better or not - congress really doesn't have much effect on that. That's up to the federal reserve, the banks and individual consumers.

Either banks will start giving out more credit or they won't. Either consumers will start buying a lot of stuff again or they won't. The Federal Reserve will either find a way to motivate banks to lend and consumers to buy shit or they won't.

My advice?

If you are Democrat don't get depressed today. It's not that bad.

If you are a Republican, don't do the happy dance today. You didn't win as much as you think you did.

Meet your new boss.

Same as your old boss.

Duh

CNN just sent me this shocking email:

"CNN BREAKING NEWS Midterm elections confirm Americans are deeply frustrated with pace of
economic recovery.

Watch live coverage now on http://CNN.com/Live"