January 9th, 2008

So Now It Gets Interesting

My predictions:

McCain will lock up the nomination on Super Tuesday. The republicans have a pretty decent history of getting their shit together early in the nomination process and they are also fairly cynical realpolitik people and are starting to realize that McCain has the best shot of pulling in center voters.

Obama and Hillary then split Super Tuesday. Her New Hamshire win accomplishes two things - it energizes her supporters and it energizes Obama supporters. The essential effect of Super Tuesday on the dems will be to knock Edwards and company out of the race.

It then goes down to the later primaries. I think Hillary will come out slightly ahead on this, simply because she has been on presidential campaigns before and will have better stamina. As this drags on I think it will get harder and harder on Obama to pull the great performances he's been pulling. Also, Hillary has a natural lead with the Super Delegates, so he actually has to win more delegate states than she does to win. Of course they could split the late races too - bringing us to a semi brokered convention and then who the fuck knows what happens.

The most likely outcome I see is a general election with Hillary against McCain, which will be weird since both candidates are hated by large sections of their own party. At that point either the Evangelicals put up an Independent candidate or Bloomberg enters as an Independent. If it's the evengelicals with an Independant he'll draw votes away from McCain and Hillary wins. If it's Bloomberg he draws votes from both candidates and it's anybody's ballgame.